After an unusually quiet period in August and the beginning of September, tropical activity in the Atlantic has surged once again.
At 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, experts confirmed that the tropical rainstorm, which had been monitored in the Bay of Campeche since Saturday, had intensified into Tropical Storm Francine.
The storm is projected to curve northward and strengthen into the next hurricane of the season in the coming days.
This week, heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and saturated ground may result in downed trees, power outages, and structural damage from parts of northeastern Mexico to the southern United States.
Francine is currently positioned off the coast of Tamaulipas, Mexico, and is expected to either maintain or gradually strengthen as it drifts northward early this week.
With sea surface temperatures ranging between 86 and 88 degrees Fahrenheit, the conditions are prime for Francine to strengthen.
The most critical time to watch Francine will be from midday Tuesday to Wednesday, as this is when meteorologists are most concerned about the potential for rapid intensification.
Although wind shear will increase over the northern Gulf Coast as Francine approaches, near-record-high sea surface temperatures and substantial ocean heat content could trigger rapid intensification into a strong hurricane just before landfall.
A hurricane watch has been issued for most of the Louisiana coast, while tropical storm watches are in effect for New Orleans, Lake Charles, and Baton Rouge.
While rain and thunderstorms have already reached parts of the northeastern Mexican coastline, a more persistent downpour is expected to hit southeast Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through Friday.
Rain bands began arriving in southern Texas on Monday morning and are forecasted to move northward, reaching the Louisiana coast by early Tuesday. From McAllen, Texas, to Shreveport, Louisiana, rain totals are projected to range from 2 to 4 inches between Saturday and Friday.
Tropical Storm Francine (Photo: NOAA)This heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding and disrupt travel, particularly in areas already saturated from earlier rainstorms in September.
“One major concern with this storm is its expected impact on areas already dealing with heavy rain and flooding from a previous tropical rainstorm last week. With the ground in eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana already soaked, it won’t take much more rain to trigger flooding,” Longley emphasized.
By Wednesday, gusty winds of up to 40 mph will reach southeast Texas and the southern Louisiana coastline, with stronger gusts expected around or especially east of the landfall point.
As the storm tracks inland and loses intensity, wind impacts will diminish, but rounds of rain and the risk of flash flooding will continue along the Mississippi Valley into late week.
Isolated tornadoes are also possible as severe thunderstorms develop inland from mid to late week. Residents in Louisiana’s high-risk zones are advised to prepare safety and evacuation plans due to the potentially dangerous conditions.
Coastal areas should brace for rough surf and flooding, with storm surge expected from the eastern Texas coast to Louisiana from Wednesday to Thursday.
Surge levels could range from 1 to 3 feet from Galveston Bay, Texas, to Mobile Bay, Alabama, and may reach 10 to 15 feet near the expected landfall on the west-central Louisiana coast.
The most recent hurricane to strike Louisiana was Ida in 2021. From 2019 to 2021, Louisiana faced eight tropical storms or hurricane landfalls, including major hurricanes Laura and Ida.
Additionally, Hurricane Sally passed just east of the state in 2020, and Tropical Depression Nicholas moved through southwestern Louisiana in 2021. Tropical rainstorms, previously Tropical Storms Olga in 2019 and Beta in 2020, also impacted the state.
This is the first time the name “Francine” has been used in the Atlantic. An alternate spelling, “Francene,” was used for tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific in 1967 and 1975 and for a Category 3 hurricane in 1971. None of these storms made landfall.
Hurricane experts warn that additional tropical systems may form over the central and eastern Atlantic during the coming week.
Two tropical waves are being monitored for potential development. The first, located a few hundred miles west of Cape Verde, is slowly moving westward and poses a high risk of development from early to midweek.
The second wave is expected to emerge from Africa in the coming days, with a high potential for development later in the week as it tracks westward across the Atlantic.