Crisis in the Groves: Olive Oil Production Faces Historic Decline Amid Climate Change

In a stark warning for the future of Europe’s oldest staple, olive oil production is facing its worst crisis in decades. The world’s largest producer is struggling to meet demand, and experts predict that the situation will worsen in the coming years. For the second consecutive year, extreme weather conditions have damaged harvests, leaving stocks depleted.

Walter Zanre, CEO of Filippo Berio’s UK arm, lamented the current situation, saying, “Today it is almost physically impossible to buy olive oil. It is sold out.” The company has been forced to import olive oil from Chile to cover the demand gap, a testament to the severity of the crisis.

Spain, which produces half of the world’s olive oil, is particularly affected. The country is expected to produce 750,000 tonnes this year, a far cry from the historic norm of 1.3 million tonnes. The olive grower’s association in Jaén, Spain’s cradle of olive production, reported a 70-80% drop in harvest yields. Rafa Guzmán, the local head of Asaja, said, “There are some growers who haven’t even had a kilo of olives. Even if olive oil is selling for €8 a bottle, that’s not enough to keep them afloat.”

Greece is also feeling the pinch, with production expected to plummet to 200,000 tonnes, a third less than last year’s already poor harvest. Manolis Yiannoulis, head of the Greek interprofessional olive oil association, warned of price increases of over 100%. “We’re looking at production rates being cut by half this year. The imbalance in demand and supply has already led to very big price increases, which producers are enjoying but which are very much hurting consumers.”

As stockpiles dwindle, manufacturers are holding only about 115,000 metric tonnes of available olive oil, against monthly usage of about 60,000 tonnes. Experts warn that should this pace of depletion persist, olive oil supplies could be exhausted before the arrival of fresh harvests.

The climate emergency is expected to exacerbate the problem, with hotter, drier, and more extreme weather events forecasted for the Mediterranean region. Zanre predicted that the situation will only worsen in the coming years, saying, “There is a huge pinch point on water. Not just for olives but for the whole of the Mediterranean growing region.” As the world grapples with the consequences of climate change, one of Europe’s oldest and most cherished traditions hangs in the balance.