A recent study has found that the severe droughts that have devastated millions of people in Syria, Iraq, and Iran since 2020 would not have been possible without human-caused global heating. Climate change has transformed what was once a rare and exceptional event into a recurring and long-lasting disaster. In the Tigris-Euphrates basin, which spans parts of Syria and Iraq, droughts of such severity were previously expected to occur about once every 250 years. However, the analysis suggests that they are now likely to strike once a decade.
In Iran, the study reveals that extreme droughts occurred on average once every 80 years in the past, but are now likely to occur every five years. This unprecedented shift is driven by the escalating global temperatures, which have risen by about 1.2C since 2020. The researchers found that the high temperatures were “virtually impossible” without climate change and made the drought far more likely to happen.
The dire consequences of these droughts are well-documented. Millions have fled rural areas, food prices have soared, and wildfires and air pollution have become widespread. In Syria, 2 million rural people have been displaced, and 12 million people, or 60% of the population, have reportedly experienced food insecurity. Iran has also been severely affected, with poor harvests causing spikes in food prices.
Existing vulnerabilities from years of war and political instability have reduced people’s ability to cope with the drought, turning it into a humanitarian disaster. “Our study has shown that human-caused climate change is already making life considerably harder for tens of millions of people in west Asia,” said Prof Mohammad Rahimi of Semnan University, Iran. “And with further warming, Syria, Iraq, and Iran will become even harsher places to live.”
Drought and Flooding Echo Patterns in AfricaThe researchers emphasize that it is essential to plan for more frequent droughts in the future. “The threat of drought is rapidly increasing in a warming world, destroying livelihoods and disrupting global food systems,” said Dr Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. “While countries made extremely wealthy by fossil fuels can pay for adaptive measures to enjoy a comfortable standard of living in a hotter, harsher world, poorer countries reeling in the aftermath of war, cannot.”
As the world prepares for the UN climate summit, Cop28, Dr Otto warns that if the world does not agree to phase out fossil fuels, the consequences will be catastrophic. “Droughts like this will continue to intensify until we stop burning fossil fuels. If the world does not agree to phase out fossil fuels, everyone loses: more people will suffer from water shortages, more farmers will be displaced, and many people will pay more for food at supermarkets.”
The study’s findings are a stark reminder of the devastating impact of climate change and the urgent need for action. As the planet continues to warm, the West Asia region is likely to become even more unforgiving, with dire consequences for its people and the global food system.