James Hansen, a leading climate scientist, and former NASA researcher who first alerted the world to climate change dangers in the 1980s, has warned that the internationally agreed threshold to prevent severe global warming will likely be surpassed in 2024.
Hansen, a key figure in climate science, predicts that global temperatures could rise to 1.7°C (3°F) above pre-industrial levels by May 2024 due to fossil fuel emissions and the natural El Niño phenomenon.
While this spike won’t immediately breach the global commitment to limit warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels, Hansen suggests that subsequent years will average around this limit even after El Niño fades.
Hansen argues urgent action is needed to prevent crossing the 2°C threshold in the 2030s.He emphasizes that the effects of greenhouse gas emissions are being compounded by feedback loops, such as ice melt increasing heat absorption.
Hansen asserts that the 1.5°C threshold has essentially been surpassed and warns that without significant action, temperatures could hit 2°C (3.6°F) in the 2030s.
Hansen’s claims are provocative, challenging the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its projections.
He argues that the current warming trajectory and energy imbalance indicate a movement towards the 1.5°C limit, with a potential breach in the coming years.
His views are debated among scientists; some agree that the 1.5°C threshold might be crossed sooner than anticipated, while others suggest that the impact of future La Niña events could moderate temperatures temporarily.
Experts agree that while crossing the 1.5°C mark may become inevitable, every fraction of a degree matters in terms of climate impact. Researchers stress that immediate and robust action is crucial to mitigate further warming and its severe consequences.