Humanity has made some strides in reducing reliance on fossil fuels, but a recent analysis highlights three critical areas where significant progress remains elusive over the next 30 years.
Despite record investments in clean energy, such as solar power—which the International Energy Agency calls the cheapest electricity source ever—and a decline in coal usage, we are still far from eliminating fossil fuels by 2050, according to Rhodium’s report.
The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to cut global oil consumption for road transport by 50% in the next three decades. This shift, combined with the increased use of renewable energy sources, is helping to lower emissions from some of the world’s largest fossil fuel consumers.
However, to prevent severe climate impacts like intensified heatwaves and floods, emissions must reach net zero by mid-century—a target still out of reach.
Despite progress, global fossil fuel use may rise again with growing energy demands.Key reasons for this shortfall include persistent carbon emissions from aviation, shipping, and industrial processes. Currently, there are no effective alternatives to jet fuel or diesel for ships, leading to continued fossil fuel use as economies grow.
Additionally, industries such as cement production and plastics manufacturing are expected to maintain high levels of carbon emissions due to the lack of viable alternatives.
Hannah Pitt from Rhodium emphasizes that while renewable energy and EVs are advancing, other sectors like aviation and shipping lack innovation and cost-effective solutions. Industrial emissions, due to their complexity, also remain high.
Global fossil fuel use may plateau or decline by mid-century but could rise again with increased energy demands. Although renewables and EVs show progress, a comprehensive approach involving diverse policies and innovations is essential for reducing fossil fuel dependency across all sectors.