Australia is set to experience an autumn with significantly warmer days and nights across most regions, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s recent long-range forecast.
The bureau attributes this extra warmth to the climate crisis and rising ocean surface temperatures, which are contributing to higher temperatures.
The bureau reported that Australia has warmed by 1.5°C since record-keeping began in 1910. For the two weeks starting February 20, cities including Sydney, Canberra, Hobart, Brisbane, and Darwin face at least a 60% chance of experiencing higher-than-usual maximum temperatures, with warmer overnight temperatures predicted across the board.
Western Australia is currently undergoing a low-intensity heatwave that will persist through the weekend, with temperatures expected to rise from 30°C on Friday to 36°C on Saturday and 43°C on Sunday.
Rising ocean temperatures and climate change contribute to the unusually warm weather outlook.During the first day of a Test match in Perth, Australia’s women’s cricket team played in temperatures reaching the low 40s.
Looking ahead to the autumn months of March, April, and May, the bureau’s outlook indicates a higher likelihood of unusually warm temperatures across all capitals.
“Unusually warm” is defined as temperatures in the top 20% historically recorded for each location. Caitlin Minney, a climatologist at the bureau, explained that the ongoing effects of climate change and warmer oceans are driving these above-median temperature signals.
Sea surface temperatures along Australia’s east coast have consistently been above average since January, continuing a trend seen every year since 1995. While warmer temperatures are expected nationwide, rainfall predictions for autumn are less clear.
The bureau forecasts below-average rainfall for several regions, including parts of Western Australia, northern Queensland, and southeastern areas of South Australia and Victoria. The El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific is weakening, with conditions expected to return to neutral over autumn.