Steve Salem, a seasoned 75-year-old boat captain, has spent most of his life deeply connected to the tides. He built his own 65-foot vessel by hand and is intimately familiar with the natural forces that influence the water’s ebb and flow. Despite his extensive experience, the tides are now becoming increasingly unpredictable, challenging even his well-honed instincts.
Salem and his wife live in a ranch-style house along a tributary of the St. Johns River in Florida, an area vulnerable to flooding. Their home was flooded twice due to Hurricanes Irma in 2017 and Nicole in 2022. Despite these setbacks, Salem remains confident in his ability to manage the tides and believes in the sturdiness of his home.
The American South, particularly Florida, is experiencing some of the fastest sea level rises on Earth. Scientists like Jeff Chanton from Florida State University are alarmed by the rapid acceleration. Historically, sea levels have risen about 1.5 millimeters per year since 1900, but this rate has more than doubled since the mid-20th century and increased significantly in recent decades, particularly in the southern U.S.
In Florida, the pace of sea level rise has soared from approximately 1.7 millimeters per year in the early 20th century to around 8.4 millimeters by 2021. This rapid increase is linked to melting ice sheets, glacier melt, and the thermal expansion of oceans. In Pensacola, the rate reached about 11 millimeters per year by 2021. Such trends are unprecedented and pose significant risks to coastal regions.
Florida Boat Captain Faces Unpredictable Tides Amid Rapid Sea Level RiseThe implications of rising sea levels are profound, especially when combined with more frequent and intense hurricanes. For example, Hurricane Ian in 2022 became the costliest hurricane in Florida’s history, exacerbated by elevated storm surges. Rachel Cleetus from the Union of Concerned Scientists emphasizes the increasing impact of such flooding events on infrastructure not designed to cope with these new realities.
Various studies suggest that the South’s sea level rise may exceed even the highest scenarios projected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Contributing factors include changes in land elevations, ocean circulation patterns like the Gulf Stream, and warming within the Gulf of Mexico. Florida, with its extensive coastline and flat topography, is particularly at risk.
Governor Ron DeSantis’s Resilient Florida program, initiated in 2021, aims to address these challenges through significant investments in resilience projects. However, recent legislative changes have adjusted vulnerability assessment requirements to potentially less stringent scenarios, a move criticized by experts like Randall Parkinson. They argue for using the highest projections to adequately prepare for future risks.
Florida’s natural landscapes are also suffering. The Big Bend region has seen freshwater forests turn into salt marshes, creating “ghost forests.” Mangroves are migrating inland, and upland pine forests in the Florida Keys are disappearing. The Key Largo tree cactus has already faced local extinction due to rising sea levels. Despite possible future reductions in the rate of sea level rise, the ongoing trend will continue to threaten Florida’s communities and ecosystems.
Jacksonville, with its low-lying geography and the meandering St. Johns River, is particularly vulnerable. The city has seen an acceleration in sea level rise, leading to increased flooding risks. Efforts are underway to model various scenarios and prepare for future disasters. Residents like Captain Steve Salem, who have experienced repeated flooding, are adjusting to this new reality but remain deeply connected to their homes and way of life.