A group of 44 scientists from 15 countries has raised an urgent warning about the potential breakdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), one of the planet’s critical ocean currents.
According to these experts, Amoc’s role in transferring warm water from the tropics to the northern Atlantic has significant implications for Europe and global climate systems.
Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer at Germany’s Potsdam Institute, shared that he has upgraded his risk assessment of an Amoc collapse due to global warming, a shift he deems vital to understanding future climate risks.
Amoc operates by transporting heat northward through surface currents, which then cool, sink, and flow back southward.
Unpredictable Amoc changes could disrupt weather patterns, impacting marine life and coastal communities.This circulation significantly impacts Europe’s climate, oceanic CO2 absorption, and rainfall patterns across the tropics.
However, scientists note concerning signs, including slowed Amoc currents over the past 60 to 70 years, highlighted by a “cold blob” in the northern Atlantic, which defies the global warming trend and could indicate reduced heat transport.
Further observations show excessive warming along the U.S. East Coast, reduced salinity in northern waters, and possible changes to deep-sea oxygen levels, all hinting at a weakening Amoc.
Experts warn that if Amoc reaches a tipping point, northern Europe could face cooling, severe weather, and sea-level rise, while tropical rain belts may shift, causing droughts and floods in new regions.
The potential global impact of an Amoc breakdown is severe, but the timing remains uncertain.
Scientists emphasize the urgent need for emissions reductions and global climate efforts to minimize these risks, which could carry profound implications for ecosystems and human infrastructure worldwide.