Achieving net-zero emissions is a global priority as nations work to curb greenhouse gas emissions and avoid severe climate consequences.
However, a recent study reveals that even if the world reaches net-zero emissions, the planet’s warming won’t halt immediately, and climate instability may persist for centuries.
Computer models, such as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, indicate that reaching net zero will significantly slow the rate of warming but won’t stop it altogether.
Oceans, especially, will continue to warm for centuries due to their heat absorption capacity. Arctic sea ice might stabilize, but Antarctic sea ice extent is projected to decline for hundreds of years.
The timing of net zero is critical. Delaying action by even five years could lead to a higher global average surface temperature, warmer oceans, and reduced sea ice for centuries.
Simulations predict that Melbourne, Australia, for example, could warm by an additional 1°C even if net zero is achieved by 2060.
A delay in achieving net-zero emissions worsens climate change impacts for centuries.Australia’s proximity to the warming Southern Ocean makes it especially vulnerable. Despite reductions in emissions, Australia’s land temperatures could rise more than in most other regions.
Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift, with winter rainfall increasing—a reversal of current drying trends in parts of the country.
While net-zero emissions mark an essential milestone, the study underscores the importance of striving for net-negative emissions, where carbon is removed from the atmosphere faster than it is emitted. This approach may eventually reverse some climate impacts.
The findings emphasize the urgent need for global cooperation and accelerated efforts to achieve net-zero. The later this goal is reached, the more severe the long-term impacts will be.
Reaching net zero is not the endpoint but a step toward mitigating the worst outcomes of climate change. Scientists stress that immediate action will minimize future damage, providing a more stable climate for generations to come.