2024 Set to Become Warmest Year on Record as Global Temperatures Surpass 1.5°C Threshold

Projections from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service suggest that 2024 will likely be the warmest year on record, primarily due to human-induced climate change. Global temperatures this year are anticipated to exceed the symbolic threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a marker established by the Paris climate agreement to avoid severe climate impacts.

This would make 2024 the first calendar year to cross this threshold, underscoring the effects of intensified climate events like heatwaves and storms. Scientists attribute this warming trend mainly to greenhouse gas emissions, with a smaller contribution from natural factors like the El Niño weather pattern, which amplifies heat temporarily.

The record-breaking temperatures in 2024 serve as a critical reminder for policymakers in the lead-up to the UN climate conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan. Experts, including Liz Bentley of the Royal Meteorological Society, warn that the new record highlights the urgent need for more robust climate action to curb future warming.

Data shows that global temperatures remained persistently high through the first ten months of the year, making it almost certain that 2024 will surpass previous records, with temperatures likely reaching at least 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels by year-end. This trend signals an escalation in the frequency and intensity of climate impacts, requiring immediate attention from global leaders.

Crossing the 1.5°C threshold in a single calendar year does not technically violate the Paris Agreement, which measures this limit as a long-term average over multiple decades. However, scientists caution that each year spent above this temperature level brings the world closer to breaching the 1.5°C goal in the long term, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

According to recent UN warnings, if current policies persist, global temperatures could rise by more than 3°C this century, intensifying risks of extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and ecosystem disruptions worldwide.

El Niño played a significant role in boosting early 2024 temperatures by warming Pacific Ocean waters, which transferred additional heat to the atmosphere. Although this El Niño phase ended in April, global temperatures have stayed high, with Copernicus data showing record-breaking daily averages for this time of year.

Scientists expect that the cooler La Niña phase could emerge soon, potentially causing a temporary temperature decrease in 2025. However, the overall trend of rising temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions suggests that new records are likely in the coming years, despite any temporary cooling from natural cycles.

The intensifying heat is not only increasing average temperatures but is also making storms, heat waves, and extreme rainfall events more severe, with widespread implications for human health, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems.

According to climate expert Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading, stabilizing temperatures will require reaching net-zero emissions. Until then, rising global temperatures will continue to drive more frequent and costly climate disasters, placing an ever-greater burden on communities around the world.