Despite promises from world leaders to limit global warming to 1.5°C, current policies are on track to increase the planet’s temperature by a staggering 2.7°C by the end of the century, according to a recent report by the Climate Action Tracker project.
This lack of progress is concerning, as the expected level of global heating has remained unchanged since 2021, showing “minimal progress” over the past year.
As Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, the lead author of the report, aptly stated, “We have failed to bend the curve.”
While some improvements in government pledges have slightly lowered the projected rise in temperature to 2.1°C, this is still far from the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The most optimistic scenario shows only a slight reduction in the warming, from 1.8°C to 1.9°C, which still falls short of the global commitment.
Even small temperature increases can result in devastating consequences for human health and the environment.
Renewable energy growth is crucial, but fossil fuel subsidies continue to hinder climate progress.A study last month revealed that 50% of the 68,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in 2022 were linked to the 1.3°C of warming already experienced.
If the world continues on its current path, the risk of irreversible and catastrophic environmental damage will increase significantly.
Despite the progress in renewable energy adoption, fossil fuel subsidies have reached record highs, and funding for fossil fuel projects surged between 2021 and 2022.
This paradox—rising emissions alongside booming renewable energy—demonstrates how fossil fuels continue to outpace clean technologies.
However, experts like Professor Niklas Höhne remain optimistic, noting that the rapid growth of renewable energy could soon overshadow fossil fuel reliance, leading to a faster decline in emissions.
The research also warns that there is a 33% chance the world could experience a 3°C rise and a 10% chance of a 3.6°C increase.
Such outcomes would be catastrophic for the planet, leading to extreme weather events and irreversible damage to ecosystems.
World leaders must take immediate, meaningful action to prevent this dire future and ensure a livable planet for future generations.