As the world grapples with the ongoing climate crisis, the idea of achieving “net zero” carbon emissions has become central to international efforts to limit global heating.
However, scientists warn that depending on natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, to offset continued fossil fuel emissions will not be enough to stop the rise in global temperatures.
Each year, the Earth’s natural carbon sinks absorb approximately half of all human emissions, which is often included in government plans to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to below 2°C.
But the authors of a recent study, led by the University of Oxford, caution that this reliance on nature could be misleading.
According to the study published in Nature, countries could potentially “cheat” their way towards climate targets by crediting these natural processes, rather than cutting fossil fuel emissions, thus giving a false impression of progress.
Natural carbon sinks like forests are vital but cannot replace necessary fossil fuel reductions.The researchers, who helped develop the science behind the concept of net zero in 2009, stress that natural sinks like rainforests and peatlands should be preserved to remove historical pollution.
However, these natural systems were never meant to be the primary solution for offsetting ongoing emissions from burning fossil fuels.
Instead, they advocate for “geological net zero,” which requires the permanent removal of carbon emissions directly caused by human activity, such as through carbon capture and storage technologies.
The study’s authors also expressed concern that international rules could lead to “cheating” by allowing countries to count naturally occurring carbon removals, such as those from “managed land” like the Amazon rainforest, toward their emissions reduction targets.
Meanwhile, emissions from “unmanaged” lands, such as those resulting from wildfires, are not accounted for in these targets.
With growing concerns about the stability of Earth’s carbon sinks, exacerbated by record temperatures and pressures from climate phenomena like El Niño, the scientists emphasize that nations must make immediate, large-scale changes to industries rather than relying too heavily on forests to absorb emissions.
Without this shift, the world risks misrepresenting true progress toward climate goals, ultimately jeopardizing the fight against climate change.