The internationally agreed-upon target to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is now teetering on the edge of becoming a symbolic goal, with climate scientists declaring it “deader than a doornail.”
With 2024 on track to be the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold, the world is facing a stark reality: the climate target, once seen as a lifeline, may soon be out of reach.
According to three of the five leading research groups monitoring global temperatures, 2024 is poised to set new records, marking the 10th consecutive year of unprecedented heat.
While a single year exceeding the 1.5°C threshold doesn’t mean immediate climate disaster, it does underline the accelerating trajectory of global warming.
Climate experts, such as Zeke Hausfather, argue that the goal is now almost impossible to achieve due to delayed action, with emissions continuing to rise unchecked.
As emissions rise, scientists warn that we are dangerously close to irreversible climate tipping points.Despite fervent calls for urgent climate action, world leaders meeting at the United Nations Climate Summit in Azerbaijan acknowledge the disheartening trend.
António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, urged leaders to act swiftly, but the growing reality is that even if national pledges to curb emissions are fulfilled, the world is still on track for a dangerous 2.7°C rise by century’s end.
Such warming would lead to catastrophic heatwaves, floods, and widespread unrest.
Though some experts remain hopeful that the Paris Agreement’s goal has spurred necessary changes, such as rapid growth in clean energy, the reality of climate tipping points looms larger than ever.
If temperatures continue to rise, irreversible shifts in ecosystems, such as the collapse of polar ice sheets and deforestation of the Amazon, could trigger runaway climate effects.
As climate scientists continue to warn that every fraction of a degree matters, the future of the planet’s climate hangs in the balance.
With critical tipping points just ahead, the fight to mitigate further warming remains more urgent than ever.