Tropical cyclones remain among the most destructive natural disasters, wreaking havoc on communities and economies each year.
As climate change continues to alter the global environment, predicting the frequency and intensity of these storms becomes increasingly important.
A recent study by NOAA researchers highlights a concerning trend in the Atlantic: the variability of hurricane seasons is expected to rise significantly in the coming decades.
The study focuses on how the frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)—a measure used by NOAA to track seasonal hurricane activity—could evolve in the future.
Since the 1990s, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of extremely active and inactive hurricane seasons, with a decrease in near-normal years.
By mid-century, the study predicts that the variability of these seasons could increase by 36%. This shift will predominantly affect the central tropical North Atlantic, an area where storms often form.
The primary drivers behind this increased variability are shifts in ocean temperatures and wind patterns.
For a tropical cyclone to form, certain atmospheric and oceanic conditions must align, including warm ocean waters, thunderstorm activity, and low vertical wind shear.
Future projections show more extreme active and inactive hurricane seasons and fewer near-normal years.Wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with altitude, plays a critical role in storm development, and changes in vertical wind shear—largely driven by differences in Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperatures—are contributing to this heightened variability.
While the overall number of hurricanes may not drastically change, the likelihood of extremely active seasons is projected to rise.
The study points out that these large year-to-year fluctuations, such as the drastic difference between 28 named storms in 2005 and just eight in 2014, present a significant challenge for forecasting.
These variations make it difficult for forecasters to predict the severity of any given hurricane season, complicating disaster response and preparedness efforts.
As communities in hurricane-prone areas face increasingly unpredictable seasons, it is crucial to enhance adaptive strategies for disaster preparedness.
Future seasons may bring intense activity, similar to 2005 or 2020, making it more urgent than ever to plan for both active and inactive years to minimize the impact on lives and infrastructure.