Large areas of Australia are at an increased risk of bushfires this summer, according to the latest forecast from the Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC).
The risk is particularly high for most of western Victoria, large parts of Western Australia’s southeastern coastline, the central west, and much of the Northern Territory.
In addition, the risk is elevated in central northern and central southern New South Wales and the lower Eyre Peninsula of South Australia.
The outlook follows below-average rainfall across southern Australia into spring, leading to significantly reduced soil moisture heading into summer.
This is compounded by the third-highest mean temperatures recorded between April and October since 1910.
In Victoria, the bushfire season has already begun, with over 150 grass and scrub fires reported so far, including two major fires.
Emergency Management Commissioner Rick Nugent attributes this to a dry autumn and winter and the hottest winter on record for the state.
“These conditions have led to higher fuel loads and drier environments, making it easier for fires to ignite and spread,” he explained.
Emergency authorities urge all Australians to prepare bushfire plans ahead of a volatile season.Meteorologist Keris Arndt of the Bureau of Meteorology warned that the heat trend would likely continue into summer, with temperatures expected to be above average day and night.
Although Victoria is anticipated to experience a wetter-than-usual December, the prolonged dry period of the past 18 months will delay the replenishment of water catchments.
AFAC urges communities to stay vigilant, even in areas with a normal bushfire risk, as catastrophic fires can still occur during typical bushfire seasons.
The agency also encourages families to prepare for multi-hazard events, including storms, flash flooding, and potential riverine flooding if heavy rain persists.
Rob Webb, AFAC’s chief executive, emphasizes the importance of developing bushfire plans.
“Given the dry winter and spring, the landscape is primed for bushfires,” he said. “While we hope for rain, it’s essential to plan as though it won’t come.”