The political establishment had written the script: Jacinta Allan’s unpopularity would drag down federal Labor across Victoria, potentially costing Anthony Albanese crucial seats and maybe even government. Months of commentary painted the Victorian Premier as a liability, with even some federal Labor colleagues privately expressing concern about her impact on the campaign. The narrative seemed set in stone – until election night delivered a stunning plot twist that left political observers scrambling to rewrite their analyses.
Rather than the predicted bloodbath, Victoria became Labor’s triumph story. The state not only held firm but swung even harder toward Labor than it had in 2022, delivering a two-party-preferred result that strengthened the party’s position significantly. For Allan, who had endured months of speculation about her leadership and dire polling numbers showing her as the nation’s most unpopular premier, the result represented nothing short of vindication.
Labor’s Unexpected Victorian Victory
The numbers tell a remarkable story of political miscalculation. Labor’s two-party-preferred vote in Victoria reached 56.35%, representing a 1.52% swing toward the party. This wasn’t just about holding ground – Labor actively gained seats that weren’t even on their target list. The victories in Deakin and nearby constituencies came as genuine surprises, with some seats lacking dedicated field organizers because they were considered unwinnable.
The contrast between expectation and reality was stark. Senior Victorian Labor sources had braced for significant losses, expecting swings of 1.5% to 2.5% against them. State caucus members had privately discussed whether Allan’s leadership could survive the loss of more than three federal seats. Instead, Labor gained three seats in Victoria, moving from 24 to 27 House of Representatives positions.
Seats that Liberals had specifically targeted – including Chisholm, Dunkley, and McEwen – not only remained in Labor hands but recorded further swings toward the party. The supposed vulnerability of Labor strongholds like Bruce, Hawke, and Gorton proved to be political fiction rather than electoral reality.
Allan’s Political Resurrection
The Premier’s response to the results was swift and confident. Rather than merely celebrating survival, Allan positioned the victory as validation of her government’s policies and direction. She specifically credited “Victorian initiatives”, including women’s health investments and free TAFE programs that had been adopted federally, arguing the results demonstrated shared values between state and federal Labor.
Perhaps most significantly for Allan’s political future, she framed the results as vindication of her government’s controversial Suburban Rail Loop project. Pointing to Labor’s success in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, she declared the 90km underground rail line had now been “backed time and time again by the Victorian community” across four elections.
The political calculus around Allan’s leadership has fundamentally shifted. MPs from her socialist left faction suggested the results should “put any leadership speculation to bed,” while others noted the unfairness of tying her leadership to federal electoral outcomes. With this barometer now favoring her, internal critics have been effectively silenced.
Liberal Party’s Victorian Crisis
While Labor celebrated, the Liberal Party faced a devastating reckoning. The Coalition’s performance in Victoria was catastrophic, potentially emerging with just seven seats out of 38, matching the number held by their National Party partners. This represented a continuation of the party’s decline, with their national seat share of 28.7% marking the lowest recorded for the combined Liberal and National parties since the two-party system began in 1910.
Victorian Liberal MPs identified familiar problems: poor candidate selection, lack of policy depth, minimal engagement with women voters, and an obsession with culture wars rather than mainstream concerns. The party’s internal divisions, stemming from the 2023 Moira Deeming expulsion saga and subsequent leadership changes, continued to undermine effectiveness.
The timing couldn’t be worse for new leader Brad Battin, who had only recently taken over from John Pesutto following the December 2024 leadership spill. His decision to promote Deeming as his “representative to the western suburbs” just days before pre-polling began highlighted the party’s ongoing internal contradictions and strategic confusion.
The federal result has intensified questions about the Victorian Liberal Party’s direction and viability. With moderate voices increasingly marginalized and the party struggling to connect with urban voters, the path back to relevance appears increasingly challenging. As one Liberal MP observed, “Victoria is not a conservative state – when are they going to get that into their heads?”