Australia’s egg shortage has become a persistent reality, with empty supermarket shelves and soaring prices signaling a fundamental shift in the nation’s egg industry. What many consumers initially dismissed as a temporary blip is the result of complex, interconnected challenges that industry experts warn are here to stay.
The transition away from traditional caged egg production, combined with devastating avian influenza outbreaks and changing consumer preferences, has created a perfect storm affecting egg availability and affordability. As Australia moves toward phasing out caged eggs entirely by 2036, the industry faces unprecedented biosecurity risks that threaten to make current shortages the new normal rather than an exception.
The Perfect Storm Behind Empty Shelves
Australia’s egg shortage stems from multiple converging factors that have fundamentally disrupted the industry’s delicate supply-demand balance. The most immediate cause has been a series of devastating avian influenza outbreaks that began in late 2023 and continued into 2025. These outbreaks resulted in the culling of over one million layer hens across Victoria, New South Wales, and the Australian Capital Territory, with approximately 7% of Australia’s total egg production capacity lost in 2024 alone.
The impact of these outbreaks extends far beyond the initial culling. When avian influenza is detected on a farm, strict biosecurity measures require entire flocks to be destroyed, facilities to be decontaminated, and restocking cannot begin until the area is declared disease-free—a process that can take months. Even after farms are cleared to restock, rebuilding flocks is a slow and expensive process, as laying hens must be replaced at staggered intervals to ensure age diversity and consistent egg quality.
Adding to these immediate challenges is Australia’s ongoing transition away from caged egg production. Major supermarkets have pledged to phase out cage eggs, and consumers have driven this change with their purchasing decisions—free-range eggs now account for 60% of supermarket sales. However, this transition has created uncertainty in the industry, with some producers delaying investment in new infrastructure due to regulatory uncertainty about free-range standards.
Why Free-Range Systems Face Greater Risks
The shift toward free-range production, while meeting consumer demand for higher welfare standards, has inadvertently increased the industry’s vulnerability to biosecurity threats. Free-range hens, which spend time outdoors, have greater exposure to wild birds, particularly waterfowl like ducks that naturally carry low pathogenic avian influenza. When this virus reaches high concentrations in commercial flocks, it can mutate into the highly pathogenic form that devastates entire operations.
This increased risk is not theoretical—it’s already manifesting in real-world impacts. Since the rise of free-range systems, Australia has experienced more frequent avian influenza outbreaks, with incidents occurring in 2012, 2013, 2020, 2024, and again in early 2025. Research has shown that as the proportion of free-range farms increases, so does the likelihood of severe outbreaks.
Market Pressures and Consumer Demand
Beyond biosecurity challenges, the egg industry faces mounting pressure from both growing demand and seasonal factors. Australia’s expanding population requires more eggs, while consumers increasingly turn to eggs as an affordable protein source during cost-of-living pressures. Daily consumption has reached over 18 million eggs, putting immense strain on the supply chain.
Seasonal variations also play a role, with colder weather naturally reducing egg production as hens lay fewer eggs during winter months. This seasonal dip, combined with reduced production capacity from avian influenza impacts, has created particularly acute shortages during certain periods.
Looking Ahead: The New Reality
Industry experts suggest that current conditions may represent the new normal rather than a temporary disruption. The combination of mandatory welfare improvements, increased biosecurity risks, and structural changes to production systems means that the era of abundant, cheap eggs may be ending. While some recovery is expected as farms rebuild their flocks, the underlying vulnerabilities in free-range systems remain.
The industry is working to address these challenges through improved biosecurity measures, government support for affected farmers, and gradual capacity increases. However, the transition period is expected to continue causing supply disruptions well into the future, with full recovery dependent on Australia remaining free from further avian influenza outbreaks.