The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is set to release its fortnightly update on Australia’s “climate drivers” tomorrow.
In advance of the full report, the BoM has shared an early insight into its Access model projections. Contrary to some international predictions, the BoM is not anticipating a La Niña event later this year.
While the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a 70% chance of La Niña forming by the end of the year, the BoM’s latest model shows only a 5% likelihood of this occurring by November.
The differing forecasts highlight varying thresholds for La Niña classification between the agencies.
A full BoM update tomorrow will clarify its low La Niña probability and current outlook.It is important to note that while the BoM’s model indicates a low probability, this does not completely rule out the possibility of a La Niña event.
A more comprehensive update, including the BoM’s detailed reasoning and outlook, will be provided tomorrow, likely maintaining the current “La Niña watch” status.
Both agencies are closely monitoring sub-surface ocean temperatures, which NOAA notes have not seen significant shifts over the past month.
Weather experts and the public alike will be awaiting further clarification on Australia’s upcoming weather patterns, as any developments could have important implications for seasonal conditions.