Relying on natural carbon sinks like forests and oceans to offset fossil fuel emissions is a dangerous shortcut, according to scientists who developed the concept of net zero.
These natural systems currently absorb about half of human emissions each year, helping countries meet their Paris Agreement targets to limit global warming.
However, experts argue that depending on them too heavily undermines genuine progress toward tackling climate change.
A recent study led by the University of Oxford and published in Nature highlights critical flaws in using natural carbon sinks to offset emissions.
While protecting ecosystems like rainforests and peatlands is essential to mitigating climate change, these natural processes were never meant to be a substitute for reducing fossil fuel emissions.
Instead, the concept of “geological net zero” calls for the permanent removal of carbon from fossil fuels through methods such as carbon capture and storage.
Governments must clarify net zero definitions to avoid using natural sinks as loopholes.The Paris Agreement currently allows countries to count carbon removals from “managed land” — like parts of the Amazon or taiga forests — towards their emission reduction goals.
However, this risks enabling nations to claim credit for natural processes that aren’t directly linked to human emissions.
Meanwhile, emissions from “unmanaged” land, such as those from wildfires, go uncounted.
In 2023, forest ecosystems absorbed almost no carbon due to extreme temperatures, signaling that natural sinks may not be as reliable as previously thought.
As climate change accelerates, it’s critical that governments acknowledge the limitations of natural carbon sinks and urgently clarify net zero commitments.
Simply protecting forests won’t be enough if fossil fuel use continues. Scientists warn that unless nations focus on permanent carbon removal and drastic emissions cuts, the world risks falling short of the climate goals necessary to prevent catastrophic global heating.