The United Kingdom and Ireland suffered a protracted rainy spell during the autumn and winter months, with the deluge made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter due to human-induced global warming, a recent study has found. The inclement weather led to devastating floods, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to infrastructure, power blackouts, travel cancellations, and significant losses of crops and livestock.
The study, conducted by climate scientists working with the World Weather Attribution group, compared the likelihood and intensity of the wet winter in today’s climate with what would have occurred in a world without high levels of carbon emissions. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, resulting in heavier rainfall. The analysis showed that the level of rain experienced during the storms would have occurred only once in 50 years in the past, but is now expected to reoccur every five years due to the 1.2C of global warming reached in recent years.
The authors of the study warned that the populations of the UK and Ireland were still “sorely lacking” in terms of protection against the impacts of global heating, with poor and vulnerable people being disproportionately affected. For instance, some people struggled to afford to replace frozen food after power supplies were cut off, while others could not afford to use dehumidifiers to dry out flooded homes due to high energy costs.
The analysis also revealed that the UK and Ireland face a wetter, damper, and mouldier future due to climate change, and that the world needs to reduce emissions to net zero to prevent further warming and resultant heavier rainfall. A separate study found that the losses of arable crops in the UK due to the heavy rain would cost farmers around £1.2 billion, compared to average production over the last decade.
Heavy UK RainThe British Red Cross warned that floods have a devastating impact on people’s lives, with effects that can be felt for months and years afterwards. The storms and flooding caused a record-breaking £573 million worth of weather-related home insurance claims in the UK, and one in seven people do not have insurance due to financial constraints.
The lack of progress in implementing adaptation measures to protect people against the impacts of global heating has been criticized by experts, with the government’s recent climate adaptation plan condemned as “very weak.” Dr. Ellie Murtagh, the UK climate adaptation lead at the British Red Cross, stressed that the level of implementation of adaptation interventions is still “sorely lacking,” and that independent assessments have highlighted the lack of progress.
Climate scientist Dr. Friederike Otto emphasized that the solutions to combat climate change are well-known, including replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, insulating homes, and restoring nature. Otto argued that these measures would not only reduce the negative impacts of climate change but also make life cheaper and better for everyone in the long run.