In 2024, record temperatures on land and at sea are causing scientists to debate whether these anomalies align with expected global warming or indicate a faster rate of climate change. Despite a weakening El Niño, which has contributed to high global temperatures over the past year, ocean heat remains unusually high.
Opinions among scientists vary regarding the extraordinary marine temperatures. Some believe the trends are consistent with climate models projecting warming due to human activities.
Others are concerned by the rapid changes, as the oceans, which absorb over 90% of anthropogenic warming, should moderate temperature increases.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported that El Niño, which had significantly warmed the Pacific Ocean, had peaked and was expected to fade between April and June.
Experts warn of potential impacts on marine life and a more active hurricane season.However, its effects would persist. The WMO’s secretary general, Celeste Saulo, noted that while El Niño contributed to making 2023 the hottest year on record, fossil fuel emissions were the primary driver.
Sea surface temperatures in January 2024 were the highest ever recorded for that month, and February also set new records. Europe experienced temperatures 3.3°C above the historical average in February, and global temperatures between February 8 and 11 were over 2°C above the 1850-1900 average.
Carlo Buontempo from Copernicus Climate Change Service warned that unless greenhouse gas levels are stabilized, new temperature records and their impacts are inevitable. Climatologist Carlos Nobre noted that current sea surface temperatures are unprecedented and could make 2024 another exceptionally hot year.
In the North Atlantic, the temperature anomalies are particularly extreme. Brian McNoldy described this as a rare event, occurring once in 284,000 years. Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth stated that while sea and surface temperatures are high, they are within climate model projections.
The high temperatures are affecting marine life, with the Great Barrier Reef undergoing its fifth mass bleaching event in eight years.
Meteorologists also anticipate a potentially more active hurricane season. Raúl Cordero from the University of Groningen suggested that a possible cooling La Niña could provide temporary relief, but long-term improvements are unlikely without a halt to fossil fuel burning.