The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal monsoon for this year predicting an overall rainfall of 83.5 cm. The department anticipates around 87 cm of rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, with about 96 percent of this expected to occur during the period.
The IMD expects normal rainfall across various regions including peninsular India, northeast India, and parts of west and central India. It also noted that reduced snow cover in areas like Eurasia could benefit the southwest monsoon.
Former Agricultural Secretary Siraj Hussain emphasized that rainfall distribution is more critical than the total amount for assessing crop conditions.
He pointed out that previous years have seen significant variations in rainfall efficiency across states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal, with some areas experiencing up to a 30 percent deficit. Hussain stressed the importance of both timely and spatial distribution of rain for optimal crop growth.
Skymet predicts below-normal monsoon despite IMD’s forecast.Regarding El Niño, the IMD mentioned that while El Niño conditions might manifest in the latter half of the monsoon, there is no direct correlation between El Niño and Indian monsoon rainfall.
El Niño involves warmer ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, which can disrupt global weather patterns. The department also observed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, which typically enhances rainfall.
Sanjay Manyal from ICICI Direct noted that U.S. agency NOAA had predicted a high probability of El Niño affecting the monsoon period. He suggested that El Niño might delay the recovery in rural income due to prolonged impacts.
The IMD also reported that La Niña conditions have shifted to neutral. La Niña, characterized by cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, generally causes opposite weather effects to El Niño, such as increased rainfall in Southeast Asia and Australia.
Recently, Skymet forecasted a below-normal monsoon with rainfall at 94 percent of the long period average (LPA), citing El Niño and other factors as potential influences.