The United Nations has issued a warning about the increasing possibility of an El Niño weather phenomenon developing in the coming months, which could lead to higher global temperatures and potentially new heat records. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now a 60% chance that El Niño will develop by the end of July and an 80% chance by the end of September.
“This will change the weather and climate patterns worldwide,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of the WMO’s regional climate prediction services division. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically brings increased heat worldwide, as well as drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains elsewhere. Its last occurrence was in 2018-19.
The WMO chief, Petteri Taalas, noted that the last eight years have been the warmest ever recorded, despite the cooling effect of La Niña, its opposite, which ended earlier this year. Without La Niña’s cooling effect, the warming situation could have been even worse. La Niña “acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase,” Taalas said.
El Niño Conditions Emerge as World Awakens to Global HeatwaveNow, the WMO is warning that the world should prepare for the development of El Niño, which “will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records.” There is currently no indication of the strength or duration of the looming El Niño, but its impact on global temperatures usually becomes apparent the year after it emerges.
The WMO highlighted that the expected arrival of El Niño could have both positive and negative effects. While it might bring respite from drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Niña-related impacts, it could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events. The organization emphasized the need for effective early warning systems to keep people safe.
As the climate pattern occurs on average every two to seven years, and usually lasts nine to 12 months, the WMO and national meteorological services will be closely monitoring developments. El Niño is typically associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and its effects can include increased rainfall in some parts of the world and severe droughts in others.
The WMO and national meteorological services are preparing for the potential arrival of El Niño, which could have significant impacts on global temperatures and weather patterns.