Scientists are sounding the alarm after the recent record-shattering temperatures that ravaged the western Mediterranean last week, attributing the extreme event to the climate crisis. According to researchers, the heatwave that swept across Spain, Portugal, Morocco, and Algeria was made at least 100 times more likely due to global heating. Before the climate crisis, such an extreme event would have been expected only once in 40,000 years, making it statistically impossible on human timescales.
The heatwave, which occurred early in the year, had devastating consequences for farmers already struggling under a prolonged drought. The intense heat struck at a critical time in the crop-growing season, particularly for wheat, leaving many wondering how they will recover. Experts warn that extreme temperatures in the region are increasing faster than predicted by climate models, a problem that has them racing to understand the reasons behind this alarming trend.
Human-caused global heating is already known to increase the severity and frequency of heatwaves, but the number of extreme events that would have been deemed impossible without the climate crisis is rising, wreaking havoc on communities across the planet. In April, scientists revealed that the devastating drought in the Horn of Africa would not have occurred without global heating. A 2022 analysis found that at least a dozen severe events, from killer heatwaves to scorching seas, would have been virtually impossible without human-caused global heating.
The Mediterranean HeatwaveDr. Sjoukje Philip, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, notes that the heatwave was a rare event in current climates but would have been almost impossible in the past, colder climates. Dr. Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, warns that the Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in Europe, and these heatwaves will continue to occur more frequently unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced.
Dr. Fatima Driouech, at the Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Morocco, emphasizes that the intense heatwave came on top of a multi-year drought, exacerbating the region’s water scarcity and threatening 2023 crop yields. The researchers used peer-reviewed methods to assess the influence of global heating on the 26-28 April heatwave, producing results that are the fastest yet for such a study, with a week-long turnaround.
The heatwave brought unprecedented temperatures, ranging from 36.9C to 41.0C, making it at least 100 times more likely due to global heating, with temperatures up to 3.5C hotter than they would have been without global heating. Heatwaves tend to be the deadliest type of extreme weather, with the researchers warning that mortality data from the April heatwave is not yet available, but heatwaves in 2022 led to nearly 4,000 deaths in Spain and over 1,000 deaths in Portugal. Roop Singh, at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, underscores the need to take urgent action to reduce heat-related mortality by implementing adaptations known to have a positive impact.