The world is on pace to burn more coal, oil, and gas in 2023 than in the previous year, with global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reaching a record high. This ominous trend is a stark reminder that the projected rate of warming has not improved over the past two years, experts warned. According to the Global Carbon Project, the world pumped 1.1% more planet-heating carbon dioxide into the atmosphere last year, a development that urgently requires a drastic reduction in emissions to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change.
The findings come as world leaders are gathered in Dubai for the high-stakes Cop28 climate summit. In a parallel report, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has raised its projections for future warming above its estimates from the Glasgow conference two years ago. “Two years after Glasgow, our report is virtually the same,” said Claire Stockwell, an analyst at Climate Analytics and lead author of the CAT report. “You would think the extreme events around the world would be sparking action, but governments appear oblivious, somehow thinking treading water will deal with the flood of impacts.”
The growth in CO2 emissions has slowed substantially over the past decade, but the amount emitted each year has continued to rise. The Global Carbon Project projected that total CO2 emissions in 2023 will reach a record high of 40.9 gigatons. If the world continues to emit CO2 at this rate, the remaining carbon budget for a half-chance of keeping global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures will be depleted in just seven years. In 15 years, the budget for 1.7C will be gone too.
The report highlights significant regional differences in emissions. Fossil fuel emissions are expected to have risen this year in India and China, the biggest and third-biggest polluters, respectively. In contrast, emissions are expected to have fallen in the US and the EU, the two biggest historical polluters. The average emissions from the rest of the world are expected to have fallen slightly.
Global Carbon Emissions Soar to Record High Once MoreThe study also underscores the growth in emissions from flights and ships abroad, driven by soaring aviation emissions. The two together are expected to have grown 11.9%. Dr. Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute and lead author of the study, noted that “the impacts of climate change are evident all around us, but action to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels remains painfully slow.”
The report concludes that unless rapid cuts are made, it is inevitable that the world will overshoot the 1.5C target of the Paris agreement and struggle to meet the 2C target. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency are crucial steps, but governments must also penalize fossil fuels to drive them out of the energy system. In the words of Glen Peters, a research director at the climate research institute Cicero, “it is simply not enough to support clean energy; policies are also needed to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system.”
As world leaders gather in Dubai, the imperative to act is stark. Corinne Le Quéré, a research professor at the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, emphasized that “all countries need to decarbonise their economies faster than they are at present to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.” The alarm bells are ringing loud and clear – it is time for decisive action to mitigate the devastating consequences of unchecked carbon emissions.