At the first sheep sale of the year in Cowra, prices are notably higher, reflecting improved conditions after substantial rainfall.
The region received over 80mm of rain in the first 11 days of January, approaching the record monthly total, and providing relief from the drought threatening New South Wales’ central tablelands.
With overcast skies covering the sale yard, high-quality lambs are fetching up to $240 each—more than $100 higher than last month’s prices.
In late 2023, low-quality lambs were being sold for as little as $11 each, a challenging situation for farmers amid El Niño concerns and expanding drought declarations. Many farmers, wary of these conditions, adjusted their strategies.
Local farmer Doug Wright managed to turn a profit by selling part of his flock before Christmas and the rest after the rain, netting an additional $25 per lamb from the latter sales.
Farmers face unpredictability as recent rains provide temporary relief from severe drought conditions.Despite his success, Wright emphasizes the unpredictable nature of farming, noting that weather patterns can shift unexpectedly.
Professor Seth Westra from the University of Adelaide highlights the challenges of interpreting probabilistic forecasts.
He points out that while the Bureau of Meteorology’s predictions of a hotter, drier year due to El Niño carry a higher risk of drought, they do not exclude the possibility of wet conditions, as experienced this summer. Effective risk management involves preparing for various scenarios.
In Victoria’s King Valley, grape growers face new challenges as recent flooding impacts their crops. Dean Cleave-Smith, president of the Wines of the King Valley Association, reflects on the difficulties of forecasting in such an unpredictable climate.
Agribusiness expert Peter Steele notes that the sector’s resilience is crucial, with farmers needing to stay informed and adaptable. The NSW government continues to support farmers through drought programs and specialized advice, addressing the ongoing climate variability.
Despite the recent rainfall, the future remains uncertain. Wright remains cautious, observing that while the year has started wet, it’s too early to predict long-term conditions.