A recent study has raised alarm about the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system, revealing it is approaching a critical tipping point that could spell disaster for both the climate and humanity. Researchers were taken aback by the speed at which this collapse might occur, though predicting the exact timing remains challenging.
The study used computer models and historical data to develop an early warning indicator for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial system of ocean currents influencing global climate.
AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream, transports heat, carbon, and nutrients from the tropics to the Arctic, where the water cools and sinks, helping regulate Earth’s energy distribution and mitigate human-induced global warming.
AMOC collapse could flood coastal cities and cause extreme weather changes worldwide.However, AMOC is currently at risk due to the accelerated melting of Greenland’s glaciers and Arctic ice sheets, which inject freshwater into the ocean and disrupt the sinking of warmer, saltier water. Since 1950, AMOC has weakened by 15%, marking its lowest state in over a thousand years.
Earlier research had suggested AMOC’s collapse might occur between 2025 and 2095, though the UK Met Office deemed large, rapid changes unlikely this century.
The new study, published in Science Advances, provides a groundbreaking perspective by examining salinity levels between Cape Town and Buenos Aires. It found that a gradual decline in AMOC could lead to a sudden collapse within less than 100 years, with severe consequences.
The research highlights that an AMOC collapse would lead to a meter rise in sea levels in the Atlantic, threatening coastal cities, drastic shifts in Amazon’s wet and dry seasons, and extreme global temperature fluctuations. Europe would experience significant cooling and reduced rainfall, with rapid changes making adaptation nearly impossible.
Lead author René van Westen from Utrecht University emphasized the unexpected rapidity of this potential tipping point and stressed the urgency of addressing climate change. “We are moving towards it, which is quite alarming,” he said. “We need to take climate change much more seriously.”