El Niño, the ongoing climate event caused by heat release from the western Pacific Ocean, is expected to significantly intensify global warming and produce record-breaking temperatures across various regions in 2024.
Analysis suggests that coastal areas around the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, the Philippines, and the Caribbean will face unprecedented heat until June 2024, after which El Niño may weaken.
This natural phenomenon, which already contributed to 2023 being the hottest year on record, exacerbates global surface temperatures. The extreme heat experienced in late 2023 due to El Niño had severe impacts across North America, Europe, China, South America, and Madagascar, worsening the climate crisis.
2024 is predicted to break global temperature records due to the intensifying El Niño.Recent computer model analysis predicts that the first half of 2024 will likely see record-setting global temperatures, with a 90% chance of breaking existing records.
Dr. Ning Jiang from the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences warns that the combination of intense heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rising sea levels poses a significant climate crisis, particularly for densely populated coastal areas. The ocean’s capacity to retain heat longer than land could lead to persistent hot conditions.
El Niño, which alternates with its cooler counterpart La Niña, amplifies the long-term trend of global warming driven by rising carbon dioxide levels.
The study, published in *Scientific Reports*, projects record temperatures in the Amazon in 2024, increasing wildfire risks, and in Alaska, where glaciers and permafrost are expected to melt, contributing to coastal erosion.
Prof. Adam Scaife from the Met Office and University of Exeter notes that while this study provides an initial outlook based on current data, it highlights the ongoing and future heat risks in regions with less historical data coverage, such as Africa and Greenland.