Australia is set for a warmer winter, with much of the country likely to experience temperatures in the top 20% on record.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast, there is an 80% chance of above-median temperatures nationwide. Rainfall is expected to be typical for large areas.
All capital cities and much of Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, and Queensland are four times more likely to have days and nights in the top 20% of historical temperatures. Senior climatologist Stephanie Jacobs said, “Warmer than usual days and nights are very likely everywhere.”
This comes after a warmer-than-usual autumn, with mean temperatures about 0.5 degrees above the 1961–1990 average. Only the Northern Territory experienced a cooler autumn.
Typical rainfall is expected, with above-average rain in parts of Western and South Australia.Last winter was Australia’s warmest since records began in 1910, with average daily temperatures 1.53C above the long-term average, surpassing the previous record set in 1996. Every winter since 2012 has been warmer than the 30-year average.
The Bureau is also monitoring a possible La Niña event, with a 50% chance it could develop later this year. Historically, a La Niña watch leads to a La Niña event about half the time.
Following a wetter-than-average autumn in some regions, typical rainfall is expected during winter, except for above-average rainfall in parts of Western Australia, South Australia, and to a lesser extent in Queensland and New South Wales.
Most areas, especially the East Coast, are likely to experience typical seasonal rainfall, though it may be drier in the far north, where rainfall is usually low this time of year.