Weather folklore often teases with intriguing but imprecise predictions. One such adage is that the number of foggy days in August corresponds to the number of snowfalls in the following winter.
This notion has inspired various methods of tracking, including placing beans in a jar to tally foggy days as a way to forecast snowfall.
However, interpreting this saying involves some nuances. Differentiating between genuine fog and mere mist can be tricky, and defining what constitutes a “snowfall” introduces further ambiguity.
This subjectivity allows for flexible interpretations that can make the folklore appear accurate, depending on how one defines the criteria.
August fogs may hint at winter snow, but evidence remains inconclusive.In Memphis, for example, meteorologists have investigated this phenomenon. In August 2017, they recorded 11 foggy days, which was followed by four days of snow during the winter.
The following year, five foggy days in August were succeeded by seven snowy days. While these observations seem to lend credence to the folklore, they are not universally consistent.
Other regions have not shown a clear correlation between August fogs and winter snowfalls. In Roanoke, Virginia, for instance, data reveals that the number of August fogs and snowy days fluctuates without a discernible pattern or correlation. This lack of consistent evidence suggests that the connection might be more coincidental than causal.
Despite the lack of scientific backing, folklore often endures through selective memory and confirmation bias.
Enthusiasts are likely to remember and emphasize instances where the prediction seemed accurate, thereby reinforcing the belief. As a result, while meteorological studies may challenge folklore, the traditional wisdom of counting fogs to predict snow continues to capture the imagination.