As the world grapples with the debilitating impact of climate change, a gathering of global leaders is set to convene in Dubai, a city situated in the heart of the world’s largest oil producer, the United Arab Emirates. For nearly three decades, the Conference of the Parties, or Cop, has been a forum where nations seek to find a collective response to the pressing issue of climate change. This year’s iteration, Cop28, promises to be a crucial one, as the world hurtles toward a critical tipping point.
The Paris agreement, signed in 2015, set a goal to limit global warming to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. However, the current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions suggests that the world is careening toward a catastrophic 3°C or more of warming. The 1.5°C target was enshrined in the Paris accord, but it remains an aspirational goal, not a binding commitment.
The world’s top climate scientists believe that the 2020s are the last chance to peak and reduce emissions to stay within the 1.5°C threshold. The International Energy Agency warns that new fossil fuel development must cease immediately to avoid blowing past the 1.5°C mark. In the face of these ominous predictions, Cop28 will grapple with the daunting task of finding a solution to the climate crisis.
At the heart of the negotiations lies the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a set of pledges made by countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. While some countries have made significant strides in reducing their emissions, others have disappointed, leaving the world far from the 1.5°C target.
Cop28 2023The United Kingdom, which hosted Cop26 last year, has undergone a remarkable change of heart. The UK’s climate envoy, Alok Sharma, was sacked from the cabinet by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has since prioritized fossil fuel exploration and abandoned earlier climate commitments. The decision to allow King Charles III to attend Cop28 and deliver a keynote speech is seen by some as a nod to the monarch’s environmental credentials.
The world’s largest emitter, China, faces growing pressure to do more to reduce emissions. While China has made some progress, many experts believe it is capable of doing far more. The country’s pledges to peak emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2060 fall short of what is needed to stave off catastrophic climate change.
As the world hurtles toward a climate crisis, the onus falls on leaders to act. The establishment of a loss and damage fund, agreed upon at Cop27, marks a significant breakthrough. However, the road ahead will be fraught with challenges, from finding new sources of finance to addressing the deeply ingrained habits of consumption and production that drive the climate crisis.
As the world convenes at Cop28, the stakes are higher than ever. Will leaders rise to the occasion, or will the quest for climate salvation remain an elusive dream? The answer hangs precariously in the balance, as the world teeters on the brink of catastrophic climate change.