A Chilling Reality Hits the UK as Temperatures Plunge to New Lows

As the country prepares to face the coldest temperatures in 14 years, the Arctic air moving south seems to be causing nothing but misery and disruption. The last time temperatures dropped this low was during the “big freeze” of January 2010, when -22.3C was recorded in Altnaharra, Scotland. The truth is that these temperatures would have been a much more common occurrence 20 to 30 years ago, before the warming trend that has become the new normal.

The shifting polar jet stream is responsible for shooting cold air at the UK straight from the Arctic. While there is a hot and a cold side to the steam, the country is currently on the northern, cold side. The length of the cold snap is also playing a role, with the buildup of snow over so many days allowing temperatures to get colder and colder. It’s an El Niño year, which means warmer Pacific currents alter patterns of tropical convection, shifting the course of the jet stream and warming sea surface temperatures that generate atmospheric waves. These waves can create seismic shifts in winter weather across Europe, resulting in colder and drier conditions in northern Europe.

While the UK is experiencing its fair share of discomfort, other countries are taking it in stride. Northern Scandinavia is about 20C colder than usual, but the locals are used to this kind of weather and are embracing it, with people even putting their babies outdoors to sleep in the fresh air. In contrast, anyone in southern Europe is basking in warmer temperatures than usual. It’s a stark reminder that, while the UK is experiencing a cold snap, it’s nothing compared to what some other parts of the world are used to.

Dr. Matt Patterson, a postdoctoral research assistant in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford, finds it interesting that people are so surprised by the cold temperatures. “These temperatures would have been a much more common occurrence 20 to 30 years ago,” he said. “We’ve acclimatised to the new normal, the overall trend towards warming. We call it the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’.” Climate change means we’re not as used as we once were to very cold days. We’ve forgotten what it used to be like before the warming trend.

Despite this cold snap, the truth is that warm days are getting warmer and cold days are getting warmer as well. In other words, we’re not getting many of these very cold days, which are just the natural, normal variability of weather. So, while the UK prepares for a cold and potentially snowy weekend, it’s likely that the cold snap will eventually come to an end, making way for more typical winter weather. And as the forecast suggests, a very different type of potentially disruptive weather will be arriving over the weekend, bringing stormy conditions to the region.