Billions of dollars in federal funding from the Biden administration’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act could be at risk due to an outdated precipitation model used by state transportation agencies.
According to a recent report by the First Street Foundation, state highway and bridge projects are relying on an obsolete model that does not account for climate change, potentially leading to inadequate flood protection.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Atlas 14 model, widely used to design infrastructure, is based on historical data from as far back as the 1960s.
It does not factor in the increased rainfall and flooding risks associated with global warming. The First Street Foundation’s analysis reveals a significant discrepancy between Atlas 14’s projections and modern climate-informed models.
First Street Foundation offers updated data for free to address outdated flood forecasts.Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation, warns, “The infrastructure projects funded by this legislation are being built to outdated flood standards. This means roads and bridges may be at risk of flooding, resulting in wasted resources.”
Extreme weather events have become more frequent and severe due to rising temperatures, making outdated models even less reliable.
NOAA acknowledges that Atlas 14 lacks climate change data. The agency is working on an updated model, Atlas 15, expected by 2026, which will incorporate modern climate projections. However, this update may come too late for many current projects.
In New Jersey, for example, Route 18’s $86 million rehabilitation project is based on Atlas 14 data. This model may underestimate the actual flood risk, as extreme precipitation events are becoming more common and severe.
While NOAA is aware of these issues, states continue to use the outdated model. The First Street Foundation offers to provide their updated precipitation data for free to assist in mitigating these risks until Atlas 15 becomes available.